Demand Forecast
How much work is coming? ARIMA case volume · rolling forecast vs actual · confidence intervals
How much work is coming?
Case volume drives every staffing decision. This module forecasts monthly onboarding & service demand and tracks forecast accuracy against realized volumes.
- Jan 2026 outlook: 139K cases/mo (135–144K at 95% CI) — 24-mo In-line with plan @ +3% CAGR.
- Forecast reliability: 2.2% backtest MAPE over 120 months — accurate enough to staff against.
- Downstream link: Demand feeds the OLS capacity model → 7,325 required FTE under base.
139K cases in the first forecast month (135–144K at 95% CI) — 2.2% backtest MAPE, reliable enough to staff against.
Case volume — forecast vs realized actual
Forecast issued Dec 25 · compare as months elapse · 4 of 6 realized months included
Supporting charts
Each chart includes a one-line takeaway. Click any visual for full methodology and coefficients.
Forecast vs actual (rolling)
Rolling holdout — tracks whether realized volumes stay inside the forecast band.
ARIMA backtest
Holdout MAPE validates the auto-selected ARIMA order before staffing decisions.
Seasonal pattern
Seasonal indices explain Q1 filing peaks and year-end volume surges.
Error distribution
Symmetric errors around zero — no systematic over- or under-forecast bias.
Scenario demand paths
Stress paths for surge and downturn scenarios feed capacity sensitivity.