Hire 120 FTE by Q2 — manageable gap if reqs accelerate in EMEA KYC
The model requires 7,325 FTE against 7,032 available (-120 net gap, concentrated in EMEA KYC) to serve 139K cases/mo. 10-year backtest MAPE 2.2% and adj. R² 0.95 support staffing against the ARIMA(2,1,1) forecast driving the $900M AOP.
Recommended Actions
- Priority-120Close staffing gapOLS regression flags 120 net FTE shortfall. Prioritize KYC/AML reqs (137 open) and contractor bridge if time-to-fill exceeds plan.
- Monitorp=0.253Monitor intervention signalEMEA KYC Hiring Accelerator shows a directional +4.33 FTE effect (p=0.253) — parallel trends pass but effect is not yet statistically significant. Continue pilot before scaling.
- Monitor-49 FTEHiring vs projection varianceYTD actual hires trail ARIMA+OLS projection by 49 (-11.3%). Onboarding largest miss (-38 hires) — Acct Opening & Client Service ahead of plan.
What-If Playground
Adjust planning assumptions and compare baseline vs. scenario in real time — see staffing gap, OpEx, and program impact before committing to a plan. Opportunity cost updates as you move levers.
Adjust levers to quantify trade-offs
Move volume, attrition, automation, or macro assumptions to see how staffing gap and OpEx shift against the baseline plan.
Adjust assumptions
Key levers for executive trade-offs — full controls remain in the sidebar.
Scales case volume mart and ARIMA training target vs AOP baseline.
Rolling attrition in supply exogenous matrix and headcount path.
Funnel conversion and req fill pace in supply ARIMA exog block.
Straight-through processing deflection — reduces touch-case volume.
Average handle time shift — primary OLS regressor with case volume.
Contractor bridge FTE and open-req scaling vs permanent hires.
Macro stress on attrition and demand uncertainty bands.
Baseline vs. scenario
| Metric | Baseline | Scenario | Impact / opportunity cost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected case volume (Jan 26) | 139K | 139K | — |
| People required to meet demand | 7,325 | 7,325 | — |
| Staffing gap | -120 | -120 | — |
| Scenario OpEx Δ | +$0M | +$0M | — |
| Estimated program effect on gap | +4.33 | +4.33 | — |
| Share of capacity in productive use | 91% | 91% | — |
Ready to fit models
Adjust assumptions in the sidebar, then hit Run models. The pipeline pauses before each model — ARIMA, OLS, DiD, and Supply — so you can review sample rows with your current inputs.